Hello Frames of Space listeners!
I’m thrilled to share highlights from my recent interview with renowned pollster
, a co-founder of Split Ticket and the head of polling at . If you care about how polling shapes political narratives—or you’re just curious about the mechanics behind the numbers—this episode is packed with candid insights and practical wisdom.Spotify Link:
Apple Podcasts Link:
Why Polling Matters—And Who It’s For
I kicked things off by asking Lakshya what led him into polling, and his passion for data-driven truth really came through. His perspective is all about getting beyond speculation, using analysis to understand what’s really going on in American politics. We dig deep into what separates a high-quality poll from the noise—it’s all about transparency, careful question design, and rigorous review.
The Argument and Raising the Bar
I’ve been following Lakshya Jain’s work in
, so it was a treat to hear how he meticulously designs their surveys. From filtering out bots to weighting samples for more accurate demographic representation, Lakshya isn’t shy about the intense work required to deliver trustworthy results.Should Everyone Understand Polling?
One question I’ve been wrestling with—which I gave directly to him—is whether the average person even needs to know any of this. Lakshya’s answer was thoughtful: while most don’t need to get into the weeds, the engaged subset of the public—and everyone involved in policy—benefits enormously from understanding how polls are built and interpreted.
2025 Elections: Lessons, Surprises, and What’s Next
Our conversation gets animated as we dig into the 2025 elections. Lakshya unpacks why the Democrats exceeded expectations, dissecting everything from turnout dynamics to the impact of Trump’s approval rating (even explaining how a government shutdown shapes, or doesn’t shape, the polls). We also delve into gender polarization, youth dissatisfaction, and the forces shaping the electorate’s mood.
Beyond Likes: What Really Wins Elections?
Lakshya Jain warns that social media ‘dunks’ don’t predict who wins at the ballot box. We talk about why polling—and listening closely to local trends and successful representatives in swing districts—remains a far sharper tool for understanding what matters.
Next Steps For You
As we wrapped up, I asked Lakshya what he wishes politically engaged people knew. His answer? Don’t get distracted by viral moments. Seek out accuracy, transparency, and the kind of honest debate we aim for every week on this show.
Thank you for listening—and for sharing your curiosity with us. If you haven’t caught the episode yet, it’s well worth a listen for anyone who wants to understand the future of American politics from the inside out.
Until next time,
Andrew Xu
(P.S. If there’s a topic you want me to explore in a future episode, reply to this email or reach out on socials—I’d love to hear from you!)
Show Notes
“How popular is Donald Trump?” by Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson, Silver Bulletin
“It will shock you how much this shutdown never happened” by Lakshya Jain, The Argument
“Gen Z’s Political Shift: Why Young Voters Are Turning on Democrats (Feat. Lakshya Jain)” from FYPod
